BCR, the second largest bank on the local market, anticipates the continuation of the downward trend in interest rates on the interbank market in the conditions of increasing excess liquidity, after in the last week the three-month ROBOR index fell from 2.01% to 1 , 79% per annum.
“We expect a continuation of the downward trend in interest rates amid rising interbank liquidity as public debt financing needs are covered by external financing sources and European funds are being spent by the government,” said Ciprian Dascalu. , the chief economist of BCR.
It anticipates a three-month ROBOR level of 1.5% per year for both the end of the first quarter of 2021 and the end of the first half, while by the end of 2021 the value of the index would increase to 2% per year. year.
“Given the significant share of the exchange rate in the central bank’s response function, the amplitude and rate of downward adjustment of interest rates to lei to the median levels encountered in the Central and Eastern European region will depend on correcting the external imbalance that was still before the current crisis far above the levels encountered in the region “.